AAK: Pricing pressure building, margins at risk

Research evidence excerpt

AAK: Pricing pressure building, margins at risk

Equity Research

European Chemicals & Ingredients

21 July 2026

AAK

Pricing pressure building, margins

at risk

We cut FY26/FY27 EPS by 5%/8% and lower our PT. We remain AAK.ST/AAK SS UNDERWEIGHT

cautious as Food Ingredients margin pressure appears Unchanged

European Chemicals &

increasingly structural. With limited volume support and Ingredients NEGATIVE

Unchanged

margin risks skewed to the downside, we remain below Price Target SEK 200.00

lowered -17% from SEK 240.00consensus on FY26 profitability and EBIT.

Price (17-Jul-26) SEK 212.20

Potential Upside/Downside -5.7%EBIT pressure building, with limited visibility on recovery. The key takeaway from the

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

quarter was that earnings pressure in Food Ingredients appears more structural than cyclical.

While management highlighted the Karlshamn disruption as a meaningful Q2 headwind, the

Market Cap (SEK mn) 55594issue was primarily cost-related rather than volume-driven and should largely unwind in H2.

Shares Outstanding (mn) 261.99More concerning is the continued weakness in Dairy, where abundant milk fat availability, due

Free Float (%) 66.87in part to increased byproducts from high protein products, is reducing demand for AAK's

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.5vegetable oil-based solutions. Management acknowledged that this trend could persist rather

Dividend Yield (%) 2.58than reverse quickly. Combined with ongoing pricing pressure and a weaker mix, Food

Return on Equity TTM (%) 18.74Ingredients Q2 EBIT/kg has fallen back towards 2024 levels. We remain cautious as margin

Current BVPS (SEK) 77.46pressure could intensify further if Dairy remains weak and the company continues prioritising

Source: Bloomberg

volumes over value-added mix.