China Oil, Gas and Chemical Sector "Weekly tracker: Q226 China crude..."

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China Oil, Gas and Chemical Sector "Weekly tracker: Q226 China crude..."

Global Research

20 July 2026ab

China Oil, Gas and Chemical Sector Equities

ChinaWeekly tracker: Q226 China crude imports

down 30% YoY; Expect recovery in Q4 Chemicals

Amily Guo

Analyst

amily.guo@ubs.com

Refining: Q2 crude imports fell 30% YoY; will the trend continue? +86-105-832 8845

June crude data were recently released (see Figure 1). In Q226, China crude imports fell Cheryl Wen

by 30% YoY, while refinery throughput declined by 11% YoY, indicating crude Analyst

inventories were drawn down. Crude oil imports declined by 20%/29%/41% YoY in S1460525030002

April/May/June, but we do not think the downtrend will continue over the longer term. cheryl.wen@ubs.com

Given that crude purchasing plans for the next two months might have been mostly +86-21-3866 8916

settled, and that refiners' incentives to raise production remain relatively weak, we Richard Li

expect the near-term recovery in crude imports to be mild. However, by year-end, as Analyst

refinery utilisation rates improve and refiners begin to rebuild crude inventories, we S1460121090003

expect crude imports to recover progressively through to next year. Refining: SOE richard-ze.li@ubs.com

refineries' average utilisation declined by 0.09ppt WoW to 67.7% last week. Utilisation +86-21-3866 8802

at teapot refineries recovered by 1.94ppt WoW to 48.52%. Nayoung Kim

Chemicals: naphtha-based ethylene utilisation declined 2ppt WoW nayoung.kim@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 4010Ethylene: naphtha-based ethylene utilisation declined 2ppt WoW to 71% (down 9ppt

YoY), while MTO route utilisation increased 2ppt WoW to 84% (down 2ppt YoY). Jay LIN

Aromatics chain: PX utilisation was broadly flat WoW at 61% (down 19ppt YoY), while Analyst