China Aluminum Sector "June Output: Indo ramps, ME tight, China steady" Ding

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China Aluminum Sector "June Output: Indo ramps, ME tight, China steady" Ding

Global Research

20 July 2026ab

China Aluminum Sector Equities

AsiaJune Output: Indo ramps, ME tight, China steady

Aluminum

Sharon Ding

Indonesia output +27% MoM (+20kt); delay concerns not yet evident Analyst

Indonesia's 1H26 net output additions reached ~160kt (16% of UBS 26e 1mt, +44% sharon.ding@ubs.com

YoY, Figure 1Indonesiaaluminium1H26output+4%YoY(+c.160kt)). June output increased on the Taijing (Morowali) ramp-up. We expect +852-2971 6284

volume growth to accelerate in 2H26, supported by ~800kt of pipeline output from Elvis Liu

Adaro, Juwan (Weda Bay) and Taijing. Recent market speculation suggests Xianfeng Associate Analyst

(Morowali) may be delayed from Jun26 to 4Q26 and Nanshan-A from 4Q26 into 2027. elvis.liu@ubs.com

For Xianfeng, UBS Indonesia port tracker indicates alumina imports into Weda Bay have +852-3712 3052

remained elevated in May-Jun (~20-25kt/month), while aluminium-related equipment Daniel Major

imports continued through Apr-May. That said, we are unable to fully confirm this Analyst

delayed production timeline and we continue to monitor progress. For Nanshan, IR daniel.major@ubs.com

reaffirmed its original ramp-up timeline in mid-July. We maintain our forecast for +44-20-7568 3472

1mt/1.7mt Indonesian output additions in 26/27E. Timothy Handerson

Analyst

Middle East output -14% MoM (-40kt); recovery remains elusive timothy.handerson@ubs.com

+62-21-2554 5000

Middle East's 1H26 net output losses reached ~970kt (35% of UBS 26e 2.8mt, -27%

YoY, Figure 2MidleEastaluminium1H26output-27%YoY(-c.970kt)). Regional output remained 40-50% below year-ago levels in 2Q26,

implying average monthly losses of ~310kt, led by Bahrain, the UAE and Iran (-60~80%

YoY).