First Hydrogen Core Network win; small ticket, big signal

Research evidence excerpt

First Hydrogen Core Network win; small ticket, big signal

July 15, 2026

flow now visibly starting, risk-reward remains attractive at just 6.5x EV/EBIT

FY26E.

Investment Thesis

• VH2 is deeply embedded in Germany’s gas, electricity and hydrogen infrastructure

build-out, holding preferred-contractor status with transmission operators and operating

in a niche protected by exceptionally high regulatory, technical and talent entry barriers.

• Germany’s energy transition is entering its most capital-intensive phase, supported by a

€500bn federal infrastructure budget and the €15-20bn CO₂ Transport Act (both approved

in 2025). Together with long-term grid and hydrogen expansion programmes, this creates

a decade-long pipeline of fully funded tenders in which VH2 is ideally positioned to win

share.

• Tender activity should sustain strong order intake and keep backlog levels above 1.5x

sales (eCF), with visibility reinforced by VH2's preferred-supplier status. That said, labour

availability remains the key constraint, as execution depends on highly qualified engineers,

which are increasingly scarce in Germany.

• VH2 can comfortably grow revenue above its headcount growth rate, supported by

the ramp-up of high-value projects (hydrogen, CO₂, district heating), higher JV leverage

and improved pricing on a richer project mix. Management guides for €730–780m sales

in FY26E, implying c.7% yoy growth at the midpoint (in line with eCF), and we see this as

conservative given the €1.1bn backlog and continued strong order intake.

• Operating leverage is now clearly demonstrated. FY25 EBITDA margin landed at 23.2%

following two guidance upgrades, and Q1'26 already ran at 22.8% in the seasonally

weakest quarter. Management guides for a 22.5% EBITDA margin in FY26E at the