European Insurance: Weekly Cover

Research evidence excerpt

European Insurance: Weekly Cover

Equity Research

18 July 2026

European Insurance

Weekly Cover

Topics of the week include: 1) GJF, ALMB results; 2) feedback

from company calls; 3) PGR, TRV results read-across, Italian

Financials M&A. Insurance outperformed European equities European Insurance NEUTRAL

this week (+135bps) vs Banks (-60bps), Div Fins (+85bps). North America Insurance/Non-Life

CoW: ALV/CS PE premium vs OAT/Bund spread. NEUTRAL

Claudia GaspariGjensidige and Alm.Brand reported strong 2Q numbers; ALMB upgraded 2026 guidance

+44 (0)20 3134 6039

and GJF signed new strategic partnerships supporting long-term revenue growth. Read-

claudia.gaspari@barclays.com

across from PGR was negative, in our view (lower growth, pressure on premiums supports Barclays, UK

the 'retail motor AI loser narrative') vs TRV results being taken positively on AYLR

Ivan Bokhmatimprovement despite drop in Q2 commercial rates. MPS provided its first formal reaction

+44 (0)20 7773 0417

to the competing consolidation options, with no clear conclusion yet.

ivan.bokhmat@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Chart of the week: ALV / CS P/E premium vs OAT / Bund spread

With French political risk back in the spotlight after Le Pen's appeal verdict reminded markets of Alessia Magni, CFA

+44 (0)20 3555 7393the upcoming 2027 presidential election, we look at AXA's valuation discount vs Allianz,

alessia.magni@barclays.com

inevitably widening tracking the OAT-Bund spread (as has often been the case since the June Barclays, UK

2024 snap election triggered a sharp repricing of French political risk).

Domenico Turco

FIGURE 1. Allianz 12m fwd P/E premium vs AXA widening in line with OAT/Bund spread +44 (0)20 7773 3505

domenico.turco@barclays.com

40% 100bps Barclays, UK

North America Insurance/Non-Life

30%