APAC Sustainability "El Niño: Weathering the Impact on ANZ equities and..."

Research evidence excerpt

APAC Sustainability "El Niño: Weathering the Impact on ANZ equities and..."

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APAC Sustainability Equities

AustralasiaEl Niño: Weathering the Impact on ANZ equities

and APAC imports Global Sustainability

Lydia Brunton

Analyst

lydia.brunton@ubs.com

We are watching the combination of a potentially historic El Niño and Aus-specific +61-2-9324 2172

climate drivers that have the potential to recreate conditions similar to Australia's Victoria Kalb

worst drought (2006–07), with implications extending from local earnings to the Analyst

tightening of food, feed and protein supply across APAC markets already exposed vicki.kalb@ubs.com

to elevated El Niño risk. +65-6495 4584

Marcus Curley

AnalystTogether with the sector analysts we have assessed impacts of key transmission channels

marcus.curley@ubs.com

inc. drought, elevated temperatures and higher bushfire risk. In the note, see the

+64-9-913 4750

detailed sector impacts from p10 and an explainer on Australian Climatology and

Drought 101 from pg 7. Kieren Chidgey

Positive - Coal & Iron ore: drier conditions reduce flooding and cyclone-related kieren.chidgey@ubs.com

disruptions, supporting reliability for Aus mining operations, while hotter temps +61-2-9324 2820

across Asia lift cooling-driven power demand & support thermal coal exports. We Tim Plumbe

see the highest coal leverage at WHC, given its APAC export exposure and thermal Analyst

coal mix, CRN less able to capture increased cooling demand given greater tim.plumbe@ubs.com

domestic exposure. For iron ore, lower operational disruption risks for BHP, RIO, +61-2-9324 3726

FMG & MIN. However Latam Copper production could be negatively impacted William Park

during El Niño. Analyst

william.park@ubs.com