Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 139" Patricot

Research evidence excerpt

Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 139" Patricot

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Global Oil and Gas Equities

GlobalHormuz tracker: day 139

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

Further escalation Analyst

The conflict in the Middle East is escalating further as Iran reportedly targeted power henri.patricot@ubs.com

plants and desalinisation plants in Kuwait (link). Previous strikes had focused on +33-14-888 3033

US military targets. These followed US strikes on bridges and an airport in Iran. Nayoung Kim

Analyst

Limited Gulf tanker crossings nayoung.kim@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 4010

Increased attacks continue to weigh heavily on flows via Hormuz. The latest UBS

Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) show that oil and gas tanker crossings fell to one, Joshua Stone

with only one product tanker entering the Gulf (Figure 1Oil&gastankerspasingthroughtheStraitofHormuz,innumberofshipsenteringandexitingtheGulfOil&gastankerspasingthroughtheStraitofHormuz,innumberofshipsenteringandexitingtheGulf). July-to-date crossings have Analyst

averaged 10, down from the mid-to-high teens recorded in late June and early July, and joshua.stone@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 5588

remain well below the c.50 level seen in February. Oil on water in the Gulf is ticking up

again, up ~5Mb in recent days (Figure 10MidleEastGulfoilonwater(Mb)). The absence of outbound oil and gas flows Josh Silverstein

takes the July average down to 5.4Mboe/d, compared with 3.7Mboe/d in June and Analyst

1.3Mboe/d in May (Figure 4EstimatedoilandgasflowsexitingtheGulf,basedonDWT,inMboe/dEstimatedoilandgasflowsexitingtheGulf,basedonDWT,inMboe/dmatedoilandgasflowsexitingtheGulf,basedonDWT,inMboe/d). Capacity entering the Gulf fell to 0.7Mboe/d and has josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513