Reading The Blueprints: Homebuilder 2Q26 Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Reading The Blueprints: Homebuilder 2Q26 Preview

Homebuilders & Building Products

Homebuilders - Market Weight

Reading The Blueprints: Homebuilder 2Q26 Preview July 15, 2026

The Wolfe Byte

Our survey work suggests demand has trended relatively in-line with normal seasonality, while the increase in

mortgage rates through the quarter limits fundamental upside. We continue expecting demand to outperform at

higher price points while inventory remains a key focus.

The Homebuilder earnings cycle kicks off Tuesday 7/21 with DHI reporting F3Q results BMO. The HBs have rallied

since mid-May, increasing +22% versus the S&P's +2%, which has sent the equities back into the trading range they

have occupied since early 2025. The setup into the quarter is not as easy as it was a quarter ago when investors were

anticipating potential demand headwinds from the Iran war and the Builders were coming off a stretch of meaningful

equity underperformance. While the Builders have given back some gains over the past couple weeks, we believe

expectations are appropriately calibrated for the current environment.

The move higher in mortgage rates throughout 2Q creates some risk to fundamentals as companies guided when

mortgage rates were ~6.3% on average with rates currently near their YTD high at 6.7%. That said, our survey

work continues trending in-line with normal seasonality despite the increase in rates with monthly performance

oscillating above and below normal seasonality. Incentives for our survey do remain at record high levels with higher

rates naturally lifting incentive levels. Some HBs have begun raising the mortgage rate buydowns in an attempt to

protect GM, a strategy we believe investors will favor.