Peller's Pulse on Positioning in FinTech

Research evidence excerpt

Peller's Pulse on Positioning in FinTech

July 15, 2026

Investment Conclusion

Wolfe Research FinTech Subsector Performance

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

-60%

Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26

SPY Payments Financial Outsourcing IT Services Card Issuers

Source: FactSet, Wolfe Research

Over the last 12 months, the Wolfe FinTech index was down 12% and the Wolfe IT Services index was down 49%

while Card Issuers were up 7% vs. the S&P up 20%.

While investors are concerned about interest rate trajectory and the impact on fundamentals from macro

conditions and policy outcomes, we believe that at recent valuation levels, multiples reflect much of the macro

risk. Names exposed to tailwinds surrounding SMB, consumer-centric, and discretionary spending top our list of

recommendations as we believe investors may turn to names with more cyclical exposures into 2026.

Payments & Processors (Market Overweight): We believe that post-election policy changes continue to favor fund

flows into financials, consumer spending remains remarkably resilient, and confidence levels have stabilized among

both consumers and SMBs. Therefore, we prefer more cyclically exposed names. Within core compounders some

select stocks we recommend include V, MA, and JKHY. On the other end of the spectrum, investors looking to add

more growth exposure could look to ADYEN, KLAR, and XYZ.

IT Services (Market Weight): After significantly underperforming YTD on near-term discretionary demand

headwinds and long-term AI questions, we view risk/reward for the sector as more balanced. While debates remain

on the long-term implications of enterprise AI adoption for the sector, we continue to view AI as a catalyst over the