2Q Set to Beat But All Eyes On Potential Deal Comments...

Research evidence excerpt

2Q Set to Beat But All Eyes On Potential Deal Comments...

Broadlines & Hardlines

Auto Parts Retail - Market Weight

O'REILLY AUTOMOTIVE (ORLY) July 15, 2026

2Q Set to Beat But All Eyes On Potential Deal Comments... Rating:

Outperform

The Wolfe Byte Price: $85.75

We expect ORLY's 2Q results to be a positive catalyst as SSS are set to beat and Price Target:

trends accelerated through the quarter. With gas prices moderating (for now), $98

miles driven holding up, and temperatures moving higher, there are tailwinds for Prior: $105

% Upside:

demand in 3Q. 14.6%

View ORLY Model

We think a full acquisition of NAPA's Automotive Unit is unlikely (but it is View Comp Table

accretive), and there could be somewhat of a relief rally if a definitive decision is Company Information

announced. Looking to the 2H, we are concerned about unit trends as prices roll 52-Week Range $83 - $109

off, and the latest wave of inflation is more transitory, since it isn't as tied to hard Market Cap. (MM) $71,062

Enterprise Value (MM) $80,724

parts. There is also a risk that maintenance may be pulled forward due to higher Shares Out. (MM) 828.7

tax refunds in 1Q. Despite our general caution on the industry, ORLY remains our Avg. Value Traded (MM) $561.85

preferred name in the space. SI% of Float 2.9%

(+) Looking for +6% SSS vs the Consensus at +5.5%. Heading into 2Q, we're Price Performance

YTD LTM

expecting a slight beat from ORLY in the +5.5-6% range with a strong exit rate. We're ORLY (6)% (6)%

modeling a +6% comp at ORLY (unchanged) to be primarily Pro versus DIY driven S&P 500 10% 19%

(consistent with past quarters). Our channel work suggests better feedback on the 115

Pro, which accelerated while DIY was softer, and credit card data remains very weak. 110