Q2 Preview, Tactical Calls, and Positioning

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 Preview, Tactical Calls, and Positioning

Wolfe Research Auto Daily

Q2 Preview, Tactical Calls, and Positioning July 15, 2026

The Wolfe Byte

We expect a mixed season, w/ renewed raw mats & LVP concerns and fading enthusiasm for non-Auto opty. Based

on our updated ests and view on positioning, we see positive setup for F, LEA and TEL; cautious on APTV, VGNT.

Crowded longs: GM, BWA. Crowded shorts: STLA, ALV, MGA.

Q2 was a volatile quarter for Autos, with many stocks round-tripping back to their Q1 levels. Renewed concerns around

raw material inflation (and corresponding pass-throughs) and downward revisions to global LV production forecasts

have come to the fore, while enthusiasm around non-Auto growth opportunities has largely faded.

In this context, we highlight select actionable names into Q2 earnings, taking into account our updated Q2 and FY

estimates, and overlaying our work on autos buyside positioning.

●We see a Constructive Setup for: F, LEA, and TEL.

●We expect a more Cautious Setup from APTV and VGNT.

●We expect potentially material surprises from the following stocks but view them as particularly crowded on

the long side: GM, BWA; or the short side: STLA, ALV, MGA.

Beyond the quarter, GM remains our relative favorite among D3 OEMs (vs F and especially STLA), as it has the clearest

path to generate continued earnings growth through 2027+, robust FCF and strong capital returns. The fundamental

setup for RIVN remains challenging, while a potential SPCX merger could provide downside support for TSLA. Amongst

Suppliers, BWA remains our favorite as we see the clearest, broadest, and most meaningful non-Auto tailwinds. We

also like the setup ahead for TEL where relative valuation remains attractive and we see clear drivers that will support