Senyek’s Valuation & Thematic Stock Baskets

Research evidence excerpt

Senyek’s Valuation & Thematic Stock Baskets

Macro Research

Portfolio Strategy

Accounting and Tax Policy

Special Situations

July 15, 2026

Key Points

Thematic Stock Baskets. Our thematic baskets center around key macro themes, short ideas,

special situations, U.S. consumer, etc. For an overview of these thematic and macro baskets,

see page 29.

Top and Worst Performing Baskets YTD. Our top performing baskets YTD have been Spin-

offs 35% and Reshoring 26%. Worst performing baskets are Short Hits -4% and High-End

Spending 0%.

Favorite Long Basket: Recent Spin-Offs Basket. Spin-off investing is one of our favorite

areas to find uncorrelated alpha on the back of new and underfollowed companies. Our spin-

off basket comprises spin-offs that occurred during the last 3 years (min market cap. of $1B)

and was up ~29% in 2025 and is our top performing basket YTD.

Favorite Short Basket: Short Hits List. Our Shorts ‘Hits List’ identifies stocks appearing

most frequently on our 17 favorite monthly short screens, which include metrics around

valuation, earnings quality, capital creation, capital allocation, and sentiment. This basket is

down ~4% YTD.

Most Defensive Basket: Consistent Buybacks. In a volatile market environment, our favorite

long basket to express a defensive view is Consistent Buybacks. This basket comprises

companies that have reduced their share count via buyback for at least 10 consecutive years.

This basket tends to perform well throughout the cycle, including heading into and

throughout recessions. This basket is +~12% YTD.

Valuations. The S&P 500 trades at 20.2x forward consensus estimates compared to a 10-

year average of 19.1x with the median P/E at 18.2x. See inside for valuation charts for the

markets, sectors, and industries.