FAST: A Feature of the Machine, Not a Bug

Research evidence excerpt

FAST: A Feature of the Machine, Not a Bug

July 15, 2026

Investment Conclusion

Fastenal (FAST): Underperform Rating; YE26 Price Target of $46

200 Investment Thesis

180 Defensive Quality: FAST is well positioned for the current environment

given it's defensive and could benefit from inflation, yet still checks the box

for short-cycle acceleration if the ISM sustainably rises above 50.

140 Maturing Growth: Management has pivoted to focus more on higher spend

120 customers, which has led to pruning of low-spend locations. FAST has also

struggled to scale its eCommerce channel. Bottom line, we could see sales

100 growth continue to decelerate.

80 Best-in-Class Margins: Part of the premium stems from best-in-class OM of

~20%. However, scope for significant operating leverage is limited by 60

Premium Valuation: We continue to see FAST trading at the highest Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 Jan-23 May-23 Sep-23 Jan-24 May-24 Sep-24 Jan-25 May-25 Sep-25 Jan-26 May-26 structurally negative customer and product mix.

multiples in our coverage on FY26 P/E, EBITDA, and FCF. This leaves us

Distributors S&P500 FAST cautious on the potential for expansion, even if ISM starts to accelerate.

UP Rating: We see risk of multiple compression if daily sales growth and

Source: Wolfe Research, FactSet gross margins have indeed peaked. Risk/reward screens below-average vs.

Fair Value Methodology our broader coverage.

Bull Case

Organic Growth (CAGR: '23-'26) 12%

OM Expansion ('23-'26) 100bps

Potential Catalysts

EPS 2026e $1.47 Gross Margin Pressure: We believe that FAST has benefited from lagged

P/E 36x inflationary pressure from tariffs on account of FIFO inventory accounting.

Target Price $53 We see rising price/cost pressure into 2026.

Rising Competition: Larger distributors like FAST benefited during the