2Q26 Bank Model Updates: Equities Trading Running But Not Run-Rateable; WFC, MS Deserved Better

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Bank Model Updates: Equities Trading Running But Not Run-Rateable; WFC, MS Deserved Better

Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges

Banks/Large-Cap - Market Weight

Banks/Mid-Cap - Market Weight

2Q26 Bank Model Updates: Equities Trading Running But July 15, 2026

Not Run-Rateable; WFC, MS Deserved Better

The Wolfe Byte

Raising ests. for banks that have reported (Money Centers, Univ. Brokers, BNY, PNC, MTB). MS remains our Top G-

SIB Pick; we would also take advantage of weakness in WFC (~10x FY2) as NIM concerns overblown, with better

2H fees / efficiency supporting ~$8+ EPS.

We update estimates for those banks that have reported earnings thus far and offer high-level takeaways by subsector.

We will address key investor debates alongside our Weekly (Sunday) Chu. Takeaways by subsector:

Money Centers: Remain Calm — All is Well(s). Money Center results were broadly positive, with BAC, Citi, JPM,

WFC reporting beats driven by top-line momentum (NII + fees) as well as better efficiency (ex-JPM). Revenue strength

was driven by a combination of NII, IB (DCM + ECM), and Equities trading. On individual stocks, both JPM and BAC

performed well / saw upward revisions as JPM raised core NII guidance, and BAC increased their FY26 op. leverage

target (+300-400bps vs. +200-300bps prior). WFC shares lagged on softer NIM guidance (3Q down ~4bps QoQ vs.

cons. NIM +2bps in 2H26); however, we are more focused on the $50B NII target which was reaffirmed, with better exit

rates on NII, fees, expenses supporting >$8 EPS potential, with WFC our preferred Money Center post 2Q results. Citi

also lagged on a higher expense guide for 2H26, and while this was largely due to front-loading of planned investments,

the glidepath to 2028 / 2031 targets is murkier.