IONS Downgrade to Peer Perform. Handicapped Bull Thesis & Near-term Likely a Wash

Research evidence excerpt

IONS Downgrade to Peer Perform. Handicapped Bull Thesis & Near-term Likely a Wash

Biotechnology - Immunology

Genetic Medicines - Market Weight

IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (IONS) July 15, 2026

IONS Downgrade to Peer Perform. Handicapped Bull Rating:

Thesis & Near-term Likely a Wash Peer Perform

Prior: Outperform

Price:

The Wolfe Byte $54.93

Two trial disappointments (TTR & tau) nullified most of our prior bull thesis, Price Target:

NAwhile our remaining bull thesis (Ionis should not relinquish leadership status to Prior: $79

Arrowhead) will not play out until >1 year later. Near-term on IONS, positive on View IONS Model

Lp(a) and negative on SHASTA View Comp Table

Company Information

The CARDIO-TTRansform mishap largely handicaps our bull thesis. We were 52-Week Range $41 - $87

previously highly bullish on Wainua's revenue trajectory in CM given the straddle Market Cap. (M) $9,078

Shares Out. (MM) 165.3

across both part B & D channels with relative immunity from tafamidis generics. Avg. Value Traded (MM) $289.25

After the unfortunate news of the Astra trial failure (our reaction), this also means SI% of Float 10.8%

an almost-complete erasure of our previous bull thesis. With tau also having shown Dividend Yield 0.0%

confounding data (another arm of our prior bull thesis; our reaction), we are now down Price Performance

to 2 major catalysts coming up where we are positive on one (Novartis, deep-dive, YTD LTM

(31)% 29%webcast) and negative on the other (Arrowhead). IONS 10% 20% SPX

Near-term IONS is in a more challenging situation. A pelacarsen success may 90

only lead to transient upside, as investors believe that pelacarsen may be only de- 80

risking for Amgen & any next-gen molecules. Unless Arrowhead lands in the low- 70