CaixaBank (1K) | Reduce | Preview: momentum carries into Q2

Research evidence excerpt

CaixaBank (1K) | Reduce | Preview: momentum carries into Q2

#EarningsPreview #TPchange

Release date: 16 July 2026

Company research

ESG profile ReduceCaixaBank

Spain | Banks & Asset Managers Beta Profile: MCap: EUR85.5bn

Target Price: EUR11.20 (10.00) Change in TP: 12.0 % Bloomberg: CABK SM Reuters: CABK.MC

Current Price: EUR12.34 Change in Revenues: 0.2% 26E/2.8% 27E Free float 48.7%

Up/downside: -9.2% Change in Rep PBT: 0.3% 26E/5.0% 27E Avg. daily volume (EURm) 141.6

YTD abs performance 18.1% Market data: 15 July 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: 1.4% 26E/6.8% 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 12.73/7.41

Preview: momentum carries into Q2 Price performance

Why this report?

CaixaBank will report Q2 26 results on 29 July, and we update our model

ahead of the release. We expect a broadly solid quarter, with NII returning to

sequential growth as negative mortgage repricing fades and loan growth

remains supportive. Our EUR1.56bn net profit estimate is c.1% above

consensus, leaving limited scope for a material near-term surprise. The more

meaningful change is beyond 2026, where we raise our NII and earnings

forecasts to reflect the cumulative contribution from credit growth, ALCO

reinvestments and the hedge portfolio. We consequently increase our TP to

EUR11.20 from EUR10.00.

Key findings

NII returns to sequential growth. We forecast Q2 NII of EUR2.74bn, up c.3% QOQ. The

quarter benefits from one additional day, the end of negative mortgage repricing and FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

Total revenues 17,269 19,095 19,887 continued loan growth. Deposit volumes should also increase, although less rapidly

Pre-prov. profit 10,568 12,111 12,679

than lending, while the advance payment of public-sector salaries creates some Pre-tax profit 9,359 10,829 11,337