SEB AB (1K) | Hold | Q2: Business momentum, finally

Research evidence excerpt

SEB AB (1K) | Hold | Q2: Business momentum, finally

rly high. Securities issuance Consensus EPS 15.83 17.77 19.25

income more than doubled, advisory fees increased by 50% and custody and AM FY to 31/12 (SEK) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

income benefited from higher market values. Part of the strength reflected activity P/E adj. and fully diluted(x) 12.8 11.3 10.5

postponed from late Q1, and management expects the normal Q3 seasonal P/BV (x) 1.7 1.6 1.6

slowdown to be somewhat more pronounced than usual. P/TBV (x) 1.8 1.7 1.6

Dividend yield 5.0% 5.8% 5.5%

Trading income was boosted by a Euroclear disposal gain; hence, we do not RoTBV 14.4% 15.4% 15.7%

extrapolate the Q2 level. RoE after tax 13.9% 14.9% 15.2%

CET 1 ratio 17.1% 17.0% 17.0%

Costs surprised positively for the second quarter running. As the guidance Cost income ratio 46.0% 43.9% 42.9%

increase to SEK33.3bn is purely FX-related and our forecast already implies a Net NPL ratio (on loans) 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

seasonally high 52.4% of costs in H2, we leave our estimates unchanged and see Sector Most Pref. Sector Least Pref.

scope for guidance to be lowered later in the year. Barclays Banco BPM

Credit quality remains sound, although Q2 included overlay releases. Credit losses Raiffeisen Bank International CaixaBank Santander Svenska Handelsbanken

of 7bp include SEK 250m of portfolio-overlay releases related to US tariff risks.

Capital development was as expected. The CET1 ratio declined to 17.2%, leaving a

250bp management buffer. The remaining Baltic model impact was fully phased

in during the quarter.

Deconstructing the forecasts

We increase our 2027-28E earnings estimates by 4-5% on higher income. We

expect similar changes from consensus, closing parts of the current gap. Markus Sandgren

Equity Research Analyst