Axfood (1K) | Hold | Premium valuation tested as growth slows

Research evidence excerpt

Axfood (1K) | Hold | Premium valuation tested as growth slows

#TPchange

Release date: 16 July 2026

Company research

ESG profile HoldAxfood

Sweden | Food retail Beta Profile: MCap: SEK49.1bn

Target Price: SEK250.00 (315.00) Change in TP: -20.6 % Bloomberg: AXFO SS Reuters: AXFO.ST

Current Price: SEK227.50 Change in Sales: -1.1% 26E/-1.6% 27E Free float 49%

Up/downside: 9.9% Change in Adj EBIT: -7.0% 26E/-8.0% 27E Avg. daily volume (SEKm) 156.9

YTD abs performance -21.6% Market data: 15 July 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: -9.0% 26E/-10.0% 27E

52-week high/low (SEK) 338.00/227.50

Premium valuation tested as growth slows Price performance

Why this report?

Q2 results fell short of expectations across most business lines, with Hemköp

and group costs the only notable positives. Given Axfood’s defensive profile

and premium valuation, earnings misses tend to be punished severely. Retail

sales growth once again lagged the market, marking a second consecutive

quarter of market share losses. Willys remains the key concern, with the

continued slowdown raising questions about its competitive positioning and

increasing the risk that the format will need to become more price

competitive to regain momentum. We lower our 2026–28E adjusted EPS

forecasts by around 9-10%. While we continue to view Axfood as a

fundamentally defensive business, supported by stable group margins and a

strong market position, we acknowledge a higher risk profile, particularly for

H2. We reiterate our Hold rating and lower our target price to SEK250 (from FY to 31/12 (SEK) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

SEK315), with roughly half of the reduction driven by lower earnings Sales 91,008 94,485 98,079

EBITDA adj. 7,840 8,288 8,682

forecasts and the remainder by a lower warranted valuation multiple. EBIT adj. 3,736 4,046 4,267