Terna (1K) | Hold | Q2 preview: supportive for FY guidance

Research evidence excerpt

Terna (1K) | Hold | Q2 preview: supportive for FY guidance

#EarningsPreview #TPchange

Release date: 16 July 2026

Company research

ESG profile HoldTerna

Italy | Utilities Beta Profile: MCap: EUR20.4bn

Target Price: EUR9.50 (9.00) Change in TP: 5.6 % Bloomberg: TRN IM Reuters: TRN.MI

Current Price: EUR10.13 Change in Sales: none 26E/none 27E Free float 70%

Up/downside: -6.3% Change in Adj EBIT: none 26E/none 27E Avg. daily volume (EURm) 63.9

YTD abs performance 11.9% Market data: 15 July 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: none 26E/none 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 10.38/8.32

Q2 preview: supportive for FY guidance Price performance

We expect a quarter in line with the usual pattern of this regulated business

and the full-year guidance. We think there are no short-term catalysts for the

equity story, as the business plan update should be postponed from H2 2026

to 2027, due to the change in management (although we do not expect a real

change in the company's strategy). We update our SOP-based model for the

new internal DCF parameters, which led to a small increase in our target

price, from EUR9.0 to EUR9.5 per share. While we like the visibility in the

company's growth, we see limited upside, considering that Terna is trading at

a 23% and 21% premium to 2026-27E EV/RAB, respectively, compared with

19% of the last ten-year historical average. We think the company is fully

valued.

Key findings FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

Terna is due to release its Q2 results on 29 July, with a conference call scheduled Sales 4,418 4,692 5,097

the same day (time TBA). There is no consensus available yet. EBITDA adj. 2,940 3,098 3,355

EBIT adj. 1,898 1,978 2,162We expect a quarter in line with the usual pattern of this regulated business and Net profit adj. 1,055 1,071 1,194