Castellum (1K) | Hold (vs Buy) | The best is behind

Research evidence excerpt

Castellum (1K) | Hold (vs Buy) | The best is behind

lue changes amounted to -0.1% compared with our forecast of 0.0%. FFOps (recurring) 9.82 8.95 9.59

Net lettings were SEK 28m in the quarter. However, SEK 140m of that is related to FY to 31/12 (SEK) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

the large Ericsson contract, where move-in is Q1 2028. If we exclude Ericsson from P/FFO 13.3 14.6 13.7

the calculation, net lettings would have been SEK -122m. The largest part of that is Dividend yield 2.0% 2.1% 2.3%

NTAps 166.63 175.89 189.43

AFRY in Frösunda (Solna) of SEK 95m. NRVps 173.34 182.67 196.30

Deconstructing the forecasts P/NTA-1 -21.4% -25.6% -30.9%

Adding the latest disposals makes us cut 2027E rental income by 12%. However, P/NRV-1 -24.5% -28.3% -33.3% FFO/NTA 5.9% 5.1% 5.1%

as NOI-margin was somewhat stronger in Q2, we cut 2027E EBIT by 10%. NOI/Asset value 4.5% 3.9% 4.0%

We have included the newly announced share buyback program of SEK 3bn in our LTV 30.1% 30.3% 28.8%

share calculation, assuming these shares could be bought at today's share price. Sector Most Pref. Sector Least Pref.

By this and the buybacks done in Q2, we cut our 2027E FFOps by only 3.7%. Aedifica Deutsche EuroShop

Catena NSI

The proceeds from the sale of a large portfolio to Wihlborgs are likely to 60% be TAG Immobilien Safestore Holdings plc

distributed to the shareholders. 75% of the positive effect from this is accounted Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield

for in our TP. Unite Group

VGP

Valuation

The average 12m forward P/FFO for the sector has been 16.5x the last 10 years.

We expect the share to trade with a discount of 10% to the sector's average due to

the mix of more than 60% offices and almost 70% outside Stockholm. To capture Jan Ihrfelt, CFA

the effects of future buyback programs, we temporarily cut it to 5%.