Piaggio (AO) | Hold | Q2 preview: India-driven growth

Research evidence excerpt

Piaggio (AO) | Hold | Q2 preview: India-driven growth

#EarningsPreview

Release date: 16 July 2026

Niccolo Guido Storer, CFA

Equity Research Analyst

+39 02 8550 7209

nstorer@keplercheuvreux.com

HoldPiaggio

Italy | Autos & parts Beta Profile: MCap: EUR645.8M

Target Price: EUR1.78 Bloomberg: PIA IM Reuters: PIA.MI

Current Price: EUR1.82 Free float 44%

Up/downside: -2.3% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 1.9

YTD abs performance -0.1% Market data: 15 July 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 2.09/1.47

Q2 preview: India-driven growth

Key points:

Piaggio already reported preliminary revenues of c. EUR500m (+4% YOY, with 150,000 vehicles sold) and a net debt position of

EUR485m.

With no detailed revenue breakdown available, but with April/May data available, we suspect most of the growth was driven by

India (both 3Ws and 2Ws). On the other hand, we would expect only modest improvements in Western countries and SE Asia.

A higher turnover should translate into a higher EBITDA, with margin expanding by 20bps YOY.

The reported net debt position implies, in our view, a combination of solid (albeit seasonal) cash generation from working capital

and low capex. No dividend was paid in Q2 26.

Our FY26 estimates (aligned with consensus) imply a strong acceleration in revenue growth in H2 (low teens), which we believe

could be challenging to achieve. On the other hand, EBITDA expectations (EUR266m, implying a EUR15m increase in H2) appear

less at risk if the company can keep delivering improvements in gross margin, coupled with opex containment.

Reporting date 28 July

Conference call TBC

Dial in number TBC

Table 1:Q2/H1 26 preview

EURm Q2 26E Q2 25A YoY chg. H1 26E H1 25A YoY chg.

Total sales 500.0 481.9 3.8% 841.7 852.6 -1.3%

EBITDA 89.7 85.1 5.4% 147.2 147.1 0.1%

EBITDA margin 17.9% 17.7% 17.5% 17.3%