Aryzta (AO) | Hold | Soft H1 expected amid German weakness, margin eyed

Research evidence excerpt

Aryzta (AO) | Hold | Soft H1 expected amid German weakness, margin eyed

Aryzta Hold | Target Price: CHF65.00

Company description Management

Aryzta is the world's biggest speciality bakery producer, a segment of the market Chairman & CEO Urs Jordi

that is typically growing amid share gains from other bakery. Aryzta has turned CFO Martin Huber

itself around under former Hiestand executive Urs Jordi, who is currently CFO Martin Huber

chairman and CEO. It has rebuilt its balance sheet amid a cost-cutting

programme and divestments following an aggressive acquisition strategy under Key shareholders

previous management in North America that went awry. The company is Free float 100.00% Freefloat 100.00%

expected to pay a dividend on 2026 results.

Investment case Valuation methodology

With last year's profit warning fading into the background, We look at peer group multiples to value the stock.

investors can focus on the ongoing business and balance sheet Our valuation is backed by a DCF with a 9.0% WACC, 2.5%

normalisation of the company. medium-term and 2% terminal growth.

However, we see relatively subdued growth given tough trading Risks to our rating

conditions while its 15%+ EBITDA margin goal for 2028 looks More intense than expected competitive environment.

difficult to achieve. Cost inflation knocking profitability.

The company has announced its intention to return cash to Labour input costs worse than anticipated.

shareholders in a dividend and/or buyback.

Catalysts

Regular reporting.

Hybrid bond repayment.

New capital allocation policy to be announced sometime in

2026.

Key data charts

Price performance Sales split by region Sales split by division

SWOT analysis

Strengths Weaknesses

Leading specialty bakery company. Overrepresented in Europe.