TotalEnergies (AO) | Hold | Q2 preview on 23 July (-)

Research evidence excerpt

TotalEnergies (AO) | Hold | Q2 preview on 23 July (-)

#EarningsPreview #Negative

Release date: 16 July 2026

Bertrand Hodée

Head of Oil & Gas

+33 1 70 98 85 83

bhodee@keplercheuvreux.com

HoldTotalEnergies

France | Oil & gas Beta Profile: MCap: EUR145.4bn

Target Price: EUR80.00 Bloomberg: TTE FP Reuters: TTEF.PA

Current Price: EUR70.64 Free float 100%

Up/downside: 13.3% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 618.1

YTD abs performance 27.1% Market data: 15 July 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 81.02/49.84

Q2 preview on 23 July (-)

Key points:

TotalEnergies published its Q2 Trading Update this morning.

(-) Q2 liquids realisation prices were USD91.6/bbl (vs KECH at USD94.5/bbl), negatively impacted by the lifting schedule towards

the end of the quarter with lower oil prices. Q2 natural gas realisations were in line.

(=) Q2 hydrocarbon production should be close to 2.4mboe/d (bang in line with our preliminary estimates, while consensus was

way below at 2.28mboe/d) as the impact of the Middle-East conflict was just 210kboe/d (vs. 360kboe/d as of end April).

(-) However, the major portion of the offshore production ramp-up in the UAE could not be lifted during the quarter and has been

recognized in E&P results on crude price as of end of June (less than USD70/bbl). The negative impact will primarily affect E&P net

results and, to a lesser extent E&P cash flow QOQ.

(-) The group's gas trading activities strongly underperformed in Q2 (after a good performance in Q1). We have revised down ILNG

net results by c. USD500m vs our preliminary expectations.

(+) TTE’s European refining margin indicator (especially difficult to calibrate in Q2 given the physical price dislocations) was up

only modestly at USD13.5/bbl (was USD11.4/bbl in Q2), but oil trading performance was strong (as in Q1).