グローバル為替金利センチメント調査: 行き過ぎた利上げ織り込み

Research evidence excerpt

グローバル為替金利センチメント調査: 行き過ぎた利上げ織り込み

Global Risk Appetite

図表 23: Which of the following comes closest to your current cash 図表 24: What level of risk do you feel you’re currently taking in your

position in your portfolio? investment strategy / portfolio, relative to your benchmark?

Average cash levels at 3.1% Appetite for risk taking in portfolios stable at normal levels

100% 6.0% 100% 6.0%

5.0% 5.0%

80% 80%

4.0% 4.0%

60% 60%

3.0% 3.0%

40% 40%

2.0% 2.0%

20%

20% 1.0% 1.0%

0% 0.0%

Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26

0% 2% Lower than normal Normal

4% 6%

8% 10% Higher than normal Avg. cash level (rhs) 12% Avg. cash level (rhs)

出所: BofA Global Research FX and Rates Sentiment Survey 出所: BofA Global Research FX and Rates Sentiment Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

図表 25: Duration exposure: Global 図表 26: Duration view: Global

Global duration exposure decreased… … but sentiment rebounded

100% 50 100% 50

90% 40 90% 40

80% 30 80% 30

70% 20 70% 20

60% 10 60% 10

50% 0 50% 0

40% -10 40% -10

30% -20 30% -20

20% -30 20% -30

10% -40 10% -40

0% -50 0% -50

Nov-21 Feb-22 May-22 Aug-22 Nov-22 Feb-23 May-23 Aug-23 Nov-23 Feb-24 May-24 Aug-24 Nov-24 Feb-25 May-25 Aug-25 Nov-25 Feb-26 May-26 Nov-21 Feb-22 May-22 Aug-22 Nov-22 Feb-23 May-23 Aug-23 Nov-23 Feb-24 May-24 Aug-24 Nov-24 Feb-25 May-25 Aug-25 Nov-25 Feb-26 May-26

Heavily o/w Moderately o/w Very Bearish Bearish

Neutral Moderately u/w Neutral Bullish

Heavily u/w Global duration positioning (rhs) Very Bullish Global duration view (rhs)

BB is the Bull-Bear Index for exposure and view.