China Watch: Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop: June posts another month of strong trade data

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China Watch: Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop: June posts another month of strong trade data

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China Watch

Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop: June posts another

month of strong trade data

14 July 2026

Exhibit 1: Both export and import growth notably beat expectations in June

June export/import growth and trade balance (announced: 14 July 2026) GEM Economics

Asia | China

June in USD terms Actual Previous Consensus BofAe

Exports (% yoy) 27.0 19.4 19.0 20

Imports (% yoy) 36.0 27.4 26.1 24

Trade balance (USD bn) 125.6 105.4 120.1 128

Anna Zhou Source: BofA Global Research estimates, China Customs, Bloomberg China & Asia Economist

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

Another month of strong trade data in June +852anna.zhou@bofa.com3508 3909

Strong trade momentum continued into June. China’s exports surged 27% yoy in June Helen Qiao

and imports jumped 36% yoy, both beating market expectations by a wide margin. As a ChinaMerrill&LynchAsia Economist(Hong Kong)

result, the trade surplus widened to USD125.6bn, remaining close to record highs. +852 3508 3961

helen.qiao@bofa.com

Tech products and autos continued to fuel export growth

Looking into the details, export strength continues to be overwhelmingly driven by

technology products. Exports of electronic integrated circuits surged 122% yoy,

contributing around 6.5ppt of the overall 27% export growth, while ADP machines rose Abbreviations:

53% yoy, adding another 3ppt. As we have highlighted previously, much of this strength

yoy: year-over-yearreflects price effects rather than pure volume gains, as rising prices across the AI and

semiconductor supply chain continue to inflate nominal export values. Volume growth in LNY: Lunar Near Year

these categories appears considerably more modest.

IC: integrated circuit