Airlines: 4Q26 domestic capacity growth: how much will schedules come down?

Research evidence excerpt

Airlines: 4Q26 domestic capacity growth: how much will schedules come down?

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Airlines

4Q26 domestic capacity growth: how much

will schedules come down?

Industry Overview

Domestic capacity has typically been cut by -290bps 14 July 2026

While summer capacity growth has been broadly supportive of unit revenue trends, with Equity

roughly flat May-September domestic growth, 4Q26 is elevated relative to the recent United States

trend. Inside, we outline the history of schedule revisions since 3Q24. On average, Airlines

industry domestic growth has been revised down by -290bps from the 11 weeks prior to Andrew G. Didora, CFA

the start of the quarter (where we sit today). Applying this relationship to current Research Analyst

schedules would imply 4Q growth of +3.5%, however, the magnitude of cuts has varied. BofAS+1 646 855 2924

andrew.didora@bofa.com

Big 4: DAL, AAL have cut more than LUV, UAL historically John Gellene, CFA

Among the Big Four carriers, AAL and DAL have historically reduced domestic capacity ResearchBofAS Analyst

growth more than UAL and LUV in the 11 weeks leading up to the start of the quarter. +1 646 855 5193

john.gellene@bofa.com

Since 3Q24, AAL has reduced growth by -300bps, while DAL has cut growth by -240bps.

In contrast, LUV’s schedules tend to be more finalized when initially filed, with average

reductions of just -70bps. UAL has fallen between AAL and LUV, with average reductions

of -180bps. Given AAL and UAL’s currently elevated 4Q26 domestic growth rates of

+13.1% and +12.7%, respectively, we expect reductions over the coming months to DAL – Delta Air Lines

exceed historical averages. Similarly, DAL spoke to 2-3% system growth in 4Q26,

AAL – American Airlines

suggesting greater-than-average revisions to growth.