TSMC: Scarcity sells

Research evidence excerpt

TSMC: Scarcity sells

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy TSMC 16 July 2026

Forecast Change

Asia

Taiwan

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 16 Jul 2026 (TWD) 2,470.00

2330.TW 2330 TT TAI 2330

Price target - 12mth (TWD) 3,000.00

Technology

Semiconductor & Equipment ADR ISIN 52-week range (TWD) 2,510.001,125.00-

TSM US8740391003

TAIWAN SE WEIGHTED INDEX 45,632

Scarcity sells

Valuation & Risks

Robert Sanders

Strong results, but the reaction is more a function of a tough reporting season Research Analyst

TSMC's shares reacted poorly (ADR -3%) to another strong set of results, which is +44-20-754-58394

more reflective of market sentiment than anything company-specific. This followed

Ross Seymore

a similar, tame reaction to ASML's strong results yesterday. Obviously, buy-side Research Analyst

expectations were ahead of sell-side in both cases so that likely did not help, along +1-415-617-3268

with AI semis being a crowded trade. We suspect that worries on the sustainability

of hyperscaler capex growth along with macro/geopolitical uncertainties have Key changes

contributed. Also not helping matters in TSMC's case is chatter around at Nvidia, 2,500.00 to

TP ↑ 20.0%

TSMC's largest customer, along with ongoing worries about Samsung and Intel 3,000.00

gaining ground at TSMC's expense as TSMC's largest customers struggle with 5,183,533 to

Sales (FYE) ↑ 5.5%

being put on allocation. Overall, we see the tame reaction as a buying opportunity 5,470,049

into the Taiwan-listed shares, while the ADR also now offers value. Buy maintained. Op prof margin

57.3 to 59.9 ↑ 4.7%

(FYE)

Capex now set to grow by 50% in 2026 (vs 35% prior) Net profit (FYE) 2,552,620.2 to ↑ 9.7%

2,800,682.8

TSMC lifted its 2026 capex plan significantly to 50% growth (from 35%). While we