Q2 Preview: Gold Pullback, Fundamentals Remain Strong

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 Preview: Gold Pullback, Fundamentals Remain Strong

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA INDUSTRY UPDATE

July 14, 2026

■Gold and Precious Minerals - Large-Cap Q2 Preview: Gold Pullback, Fundamentals

Golds

and Precious Minerals - Mid and Small Remain Strong■Gold

Cap Golds

Steven Green, CFA^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

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Q2 reporting begins July 23 with NEM after the bell. We expect margins to moderate on the

steven.green@tdsecurities.com

recent gold pullback and higher energy costs, but remain near historically high levels.

Wayne Lam, CFA^

416 983 9588 We remain positive on the sector, as broader central bank demand provides structural

wayne.lam@tdsecurities.com support, despite a stronger USD and ETF outflows in the short term. We have made minor

updates to our deck reflecting the recent pullback.

Derick Ma, CFA, CPA, CA^

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Gold pulls back in Q2, but remains historically elevated: Gold weakened into the quarter,derick.ma@tdsecurities.com

ending off at $4,512/oz, down 7.5% from Q1's $4,875 average. The Iran-US conflict remains a

Faiq Qadri, P. Eng^ key driver in the short term, with higher oil prices causing rate hike concerns and a stronger

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USD, as well as resulting in regional official sector sales as some countries look to defend their

faiq.qadri@tdsecurities.com

currencies and/or fund defense spending. Longer term, we believe the factors that have driven

Jennifer Mao^ gold higher for the last three years remain in place; broad central bank buying, growing US

416 308 2360 (and global) deficits, and store of value demand. We have made minor adjustments to our

jennifer.mao@tdsecurities.com outlook, modestly lowering our 2026 and 2027 gold price assumptions (Fig.1).

Nolan Silvester