Updating Price Target In Conjunction With Our 2Q26 EPS Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Updating Price Target In Conjunction With Our 2Q26 EPS Preview

Managed Care

Humana

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC EARNINGS UPDATE

July 14, 2026

Price: $406.00 (07/13/2026) Updating Price Target In Conjunction With

Price Target: $350.00 (Prior $211.00) Our 2Q26 EPS Preview

HOLD (2)

Ryan Langston THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1418

Investors are now more comfortable with the improving MA cost trend environment and

ryan.langston@tdsecurities.com

higher chance of BY28 Stars success. We maintain our 2026 adj EPS estimate of $6.64 given

William Spivack our concern of enrollment growth pressure on MLR, though acknowledge a favorable trend

202 868 5302 environment and G&A leverage may offset. We adjust our price target to $350, 24.8x our

william.spivack@tdsecurities.com

2027E adj EPS estimate.

Christian Borgmeyer, CFA

646 562 1430 2Q26 Setup - Management's 2Q26 guidance includes MLR “slightly above” 91% and adj

christian.borgmeyer@tdsecurities.com EPS at ~80-85% of FY26 guidance, or ~$7.20-7.65. We model 91.2% MLR and $7.20 adj EPS

Gary Taylor vs. consensus at 91.1% and $7.23. For 2Q26, excluding our estimate for anticipated PYD,

646 562 1450 consensus MLR is +126bps yty which is a smaller yty increase than peers. We see this as a less

gary.taylor@tdsecurities.com conservative setup vs other MCO estimates but acknowledge G&A leverage may offset any

excess pressure.

Key Data

Symbol NYSE: HUM HUM reiterated FY26 guidance on 6/1/26, which we view as de-risking the quarter. Broadly,

Beta: 0.72 2Q26 MA cost trend data appears at very least stable. Our May hospital survey showed ~flat

52-Week Range: $409.42-$163.67 yty revenue and weaker surgical volumes partly offset by medical growth, consistent with

Market Cap: $48.7B commentary from ARDT.