Updating Model & Price Target In Conjunction With Our 2Q26 EPS Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Updating Model & Price Target In Conjunction With Our 2Q26 EPS Preview

Managed Care

Centene

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC ESTIMATE CHANGES

July 14, 2026

Price: $68.29 (07/13/2026) Updating Model & Price Target In Conjunction

Price Target: $65.00 (Prior $47.00) With Our 2Q26 EPS Preview

HOLD (2)

Ryan Langston THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1418

Adjusting for the 2Q25 HIX risk adjustment impact, 2Q26 cons MLR of 91.2% represents

ryan.langston@tdsecurities.com

+110bps yty vs 1Q26A MLR up +20bps yty. The absence of an 8-K like last year is a positive

Christian Borgmeyer, CFA indicator. Given 1Q26 results and commentary on HIX RA accruals, we expect CNC to raise

646 562 1430 FY26 guidance. We raise our 2Q26 EPS estimate to $1.11 and FY26 to $3.66, and our PT moves

christian.borgmeyer@tdsecurities.com

to $65.

William Spivack

202 868 5302 2Q26 Setup - While CNC did not provide formal 2Q26 guidance, they provided quarterly

william.spivack@tdsecurities.com seasonality commentary including an expectation the majority of 2026 Adj EPS to be in 1Q26,

Gary Taylor to step down in 2Q26, to be around breakeven in 3Q26, and for an EPS loss in 4Q26. 2Q26

646 562 1450 cons MLR of 91.2% is -150bps yty vs 2Q25 93.0% GAAP basis MLR, but notably 2Q25 included

gary.taylor@tdsecurities.com a ~$1.2b (~260bps MLR) headwind from HIX risk adjustment. 2Q25 MLR excluding this impact

was ~90.1%. Adjusting for this impact, 2Q26 cons MLR of 91.2% represents +110bps yty, which

Key Data

appears achievable given 1Q26 MLR was up only +20bps yty. We would note last year CNC

Symbol NYSE: CNC

initially disclosed this risk adjustment headwind in a 7/1 8-K. The absence of a similar 8-K this

Beta: 1.08

year ahead of 2Q26 earnings is a positive indicator. Accrual positions on ACA RA for both

52-Week Range: $68.35-$25.21