Q2/26 Canadian Cargo Transportation (Road & Air) Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Q2/26 Canadian Cargo Transportation (Road & Air) Preview

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA INDUSTRY UPDATE

July 14, 2026

■Transportation - Railroads/Trucking Q2/26 Canadian Cargo Transportation (Road

■Transportation/Aerospace

& Air) Preview

Tim James, CFA^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

416 308 9773

Valuations of our Canadian cargo coverage remain very attractive relative to North

tim.james@tdsecurities.com

American comparables. While we don't expect significant catalysts from Q2, we believe

Jasroop S Bains, CFA, CPA^ results will remind investors of business quality, relative stability and long-term growth

416 307 9422 opportunities. We are slightly below Q2 cons. EBITDA for Mullen Group (in-line with full-year

jasroop.bains@tdsecurities.com

guide) and in-line for Cargojet (Figure 1).

Price Target Changes

We updated our economic, FX, fuel, and company-specific assumptions. The net effect lowersCJT-T C$118.00 (Prior C$124.00)

our Cargojet target slightly (recommendation unch) and has minimal impact on our Mullen

target (Figures 2/3). Despite modest remaining upside to Mullen target, we believe it is

prudent to review results before considering any recommendation change.

For Mullen, we expect strong 2026/27 EBITDA growth (+12%/+9%), supported by road freight

fundamentals that appear to be bottoming as Canadian capacity tightens later this year, an

improving specialized/industrial backdrop, and M&A. Tighter capacity and higher spot rates

should flow through contract rates, supporting margin expansion in 2026 and 2027. Nation-

building projects could further enhance thematic appeal and lift S&I and broader freight

demand, while additional M&A would provide incremental growth potential.

We forecast +3% y/y organic Q2/26 revenue growth to $603mm (cons: $594mm) and +10%