Pipeline Holds Potential, But Outlook Through LOEs Uncertain

Research evidence excerpt

Pipeline Holds Potential, But Outlook Through LOEs Uncertain

TD Cowen Pharmaceutical Industry Pulse Novartis

Global Research July 2026

Novartis Key Upcoming Events

Time Frame Event Type Product Event

2026 Clinical del-desiran (from Avidity) Phase III data (HARBOR) in DM1; H2

del-brax (from Avidity) Full Phase II/III biomarker data (FORTITUDE) in FSHD (topline positive)

Fabhalta Phase II data in LN and AAV (estimated)

Ianalumab Phase III data (VAYHIT1) in 1L immune thrombocytopenia; H2

Pelacarsen Phase III data (HORIZON) in secondary CVRR in patients with elevated Lp(a); H2

QCZ484 Phase II data in hypertension; H2

Remibrutinib Phase III data (REMODEL-1 and 2) in relapsing MS; H2

Phase III data in HS; H2

VHB937 Phase II data in ALS (ASTRALS); H2

Regulatory del-zota (from Avidity) Regulatory filings for DMD; H1

Ianalumab Regulatory filings for Sjogren's disease; H1

Pelacarsen Regulatory filings for CVRR in Lp(a) high patients; H2

Pluvicto Regulatory approval for mHSPC; H2

Rhapsido Regulatory approval for CIndU; H2

Vanrafia Regulatory filings for full approval in IgAN; H1

2027 Clinical Leqvio Phase III secondary prevention data (VICTORION-2P) in patients with ASCVD (readout expected 20

Lu-NeoB (GRPR RLT) Phase II data in ER+/HER2-/GRPR advanced BC

Source: Company data; TD Cowen

-3% EPS Growth Forecast For 2026, Then +2% To +10% In 2027-32

2026 EPS Estimated To Decrease 3%

We estimate 2026 EPS at $8.70 (-3%), on +1% net sales growth to $55.2B. We

estimate GPM to remain flat at 83.5%, SG&A to increase 2% and R&D to increase

9%, leading to a 1.5pp decrease in operating margin to 38.7%. We estimate net

other expense to increase ~$590MM to $1.7B, the tax rate to increase 0.3pp to

16.5% and share count to decrease by 52MM shares to 1,887MM (part of $10B