1H26 Results due on Tuesday 28 July

Research evidence excerpt

1H26 Results due on Tuesday 28 July

UK | Building, Construction & Housebuilders

Forterra EquityJulyResearch12, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGE1H26 Results due on Tuesday 28 July

With greater risk of a difficult demand backdrop persisting into 2H26, we RATING BUY

have cut JEFe EBITDA by another c.6% pa. While we recognise near-term PRICE 133.40p^

share price movements may be more influenced by earnings momentum PRICE TARGET | % TO PT 160.00p (177.00p) | +20%

and broader UK construction trends/ politics, the solid balance sheet (i.e. 52W HIGH-LOW 215p - 126p

<1.5x net debt/ EBITDA throughout our forecast period) continues to offer FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 99.8% | 1.44

strong potential for extra cash returns as we await a recovery to unlock its MARKET CAP £274.8M | $368.0M

high operating leverage. TICKER FORT LN

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

1H26 sales to show limited change in trend from 4m26. We forecast 1H26 sales c.-10%

YoY, thus suggesting a very similar run-rate to 4m26's -11% YoY. Within this, brick volumes

are expected to have performed better than concrete given commentary at 4m26 saying brick FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

market share had been maintained since late-2025. While the 4m26 result was predominantly 2026 2027 2026 2027

volume-driven, the small improvement in JEFe's 1H26 factors in a slightly higher sequential REV -5% -5% -4% -5%

pricing contribution given price increases were implemented from February/ March. As of EPS -12% -11% -12% -16%

4m26, pricing in bricks was reported to be better than aircrete blocks given the latter saw better

price inflation last year. We expect limited benefit from surcharges in 1H26 given these were

only due to be passed from June. Exhibit 1 - Forterra - Changes to JEFe