Retail Details, Volume 178

Research evidence excerpt

Retail Details, Volume 178

se. OUR TAKE: With the emerging K-shapedINDUSTRY split in consumer health, we believe names positioning themselves as premium with

a middle-to-upper income consumer are more likely to be insulated from macro

headwinds. We view ONON and BIRK as doing so in their respective categories.

■ HOKA Debuts Clifton 11. HOKA began quietly selling the Clifton 11 on July 1 through

its own DTC and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS, Buy, $300 PT; Analyst: Robert Drbul). ItREPORT

is priced at $155, on par with its predecessor, the Clifton 10, currently being cleared

at ~20% off. The Clifton 11 will be launched in conjunction with a new model,

the Clifton Pro (priced at $165), launching July 9 but already available for preview

online at Fleet Feet (Private). The Clifton 11 will be aimed at mass distribution and

everyday use, while the Clifton Pro is designed for performance with distro largely

at run specialty. OUR TAKE: We believe management has incorporated the learnings

from last year's disappointing Clifton launch, including a cleaner market for end-

of-life styles, bigger performance upgrades, and a narrower gap between updates.

This is the first key test of two distinct models, as the company pushes forth on its

segmentation strategy that could ultimately allow for broader distribution (much

like ONON is doing with the launch of the Cloudsurfer 3 this fall, initially exclusive

to run spec). Initial tester reviews, while early, generally skew positively.

■ Back-to-School Spending Set to Increase. JLL (Private) found parents plan to spend

$489 per child, up 11.7% YoY with the biggest gains coming from middle-income

households (Exhibit 7), followed by upper-income households. Discretionary mix

fell to ~56% of budgets, down from 60% LY (Exhibit 8).