Thill's Download: META Spark Ignites, Positive AMZN Check & More

Research evidence excerpt

Thill's Download: META Spark Ignites, Positive AMZN Check & More

Software

Equity Research

July 12, 2026

Ad Expert Call Key Takes

Speaker bio here. Replay link here.

1) 1H26 demand surprised to the upside and 2H26 guide was raised. The expert's firm's ad spend

exceeded expectations in 1H26 despite macro headwinds in the Middle East, & he raised his outlook for

2H26. For Q2, his firm saw 17-18% growth for GOOGL & 18-20% for META vs expectations of 10-12%.

He expects META to sustain ~20% growth in Q3. In terms of specific drivers for broader ad spend

growth, he highlighted RoAS was generally good enough to keep advertisers investing more, demand

for creator/influencer ads continues to grow, and the use of first-party data in ads is steadily increasing

(which improves RoAS, allowing firms to raise prices).

2) META and GOOGL remain the primary beneficiaries of ad spend growth heading into 2H26. META

and GOOGL remain the preferred platforms for the expert's clients due to their superior targeting

capabilities (which he partially attributes to their AI ranking models). The expert also notes that broad-

based headcount reductions amongst nearly all of his clients are driving budget concentration toward

the most efficient & predictable platforms. He points out that LLM ad campaigns (e.g. OpenAI) have

underperformed expectations for his clients (even modest expectations), and that while cost of clicks

is relatively higher for those initiatives, his clients haven't seen that translate into higher quality clicks /

conversions, benefiting META & GOOGL. META saw CPMs up 10-12% according to the expert, with IG

being more costly than FB and Threads.

3) META is winning in creator advertising, but GOOGL retains the broader LT runway. The expert