China trade Surging higher

Research evidence excerpt

China trade Surging higher

Economics ● China

14 July 2026

Implications

China’s external sector has proven to be a continued bright spot, and the June data shows an acceleration of that trend: exports rose

27% y-o-y, while imports rose 36% y-o-y, both greatly exceeding expectations (Bbg: 19% and 26%, respectively). The trade balance

rose to USD125.62bn in June.

Despite recent volatility from the Middle East conflict, which has seen global oil prices shooting up again in the recent week

(Bloomberg, 14 July), China’s trade sector has been more resilient, driven by a global AI-push and recent stabilisation in trade

relations with the US. Nonetheless, domestic activity is likely to show signs of moderation in the upcoming June print, which will put

more onus on policymakers to ramp up support. The July Politburo at month-end will be a key watch point. We expect policy support

to centre on accelerating deployment of already announced fiscal stimulus, while monetary policy will be supportive through liquidity

injections and targeted easing.

Exports have held up due to a combination of factors, which are likely to have sustaining power. Firstly, the AI-demand cycle remains

strong. Hi-tech exports rose 52% y-o-y. Within this, semiconductors rose 122% y-o-y and laptops rose 53% y-o-y, combined

contributing to a 9.4ppt boost to headline growth (chart 1). However, we also need to take note of the fact that the recent surge was

driven more by price increases than by volumes (chart 2).

Chart 1. Semiconductors continued to Chart 2. …but the boost was primarily

provide a key boost to export growth… driven by price gains

30 Contribution ppt. EIC exports, % y-o-y 140

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