GLOBAL RESEARCH ARCHIVE
Diversification of the Portfolio Underappreciated; Raise Est. and PT
Research evidence excerpt
Diversification of the Portfolio Underappreciated; Raise Est. and PT
throughout the quarter Exhbit 1). We model GM down 50 bps (same as consensus); FX Shares Out (mil) 178.6
and tariffs are each ~50 bps headwind vs. 75 bps in 1Q26, while underlying improvement Market Cap. (mil) €32,612
should be similar (outperformance in DTC and jerseys sales should also help). With the Avg Daily Vol (000) 661
added WC spend, Marketing is expected €150M higher y/y and €100M+ vs. 1Q26; we Div (ann) €2.00
model 22% growth y/y (above the Street up 19%). Div Yield 1.10%
Fiscal Year End Dec
• Innovation pipeline: is there soft landing for Terrace? While Gazelle and Campus Price Performance - 1 Year
are still declining, Lifestyle accelerated sequentially in 1Q26, with ongoing strength in EUR
new Terrace styles such as Mary Jane across both Samba and Tokyo as well as new 220
executions of Samba; search interest for Samba was up over 70% in 2Q26, accelerating
vs. down LSD in 1Q26 and first positive increase since 4Q24. Adi's model is more "broad 200
and shallow" compared to NKE that is heavily concentrated in key franchises, which 180
minimizes out-sized franchise risk.
• Raise est. We raise 2Q26 EPS to €2.40 (above the Street at €2.36) and '26/'27 to 140
€9.40/€11.64 vs. €9.30/€11.28 prior. Company historically pre-announces when EBIT
beat the Street by more than 5%, accompanied by a raise to the annual outlook. The Jul-25120 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26 Jul-26
announcement historically comes 1-2 weeks prior to the full release--last time ADS
Source: Bloomberg
pre-announced was 3Q25 on 10/21/25. Given Marketing line item potentially ahead of
consensus given the WC spend, it's less clear if we get a pre-announcement next week--
although we think sales beat matters more.
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