Novo Nordisk A/S: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Novo Nordisk A/S: Risk Reward Update

Update

July 16, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MNovo Nordisk A/S | Europe Thibault Boutherin

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Thibault.Boutherin@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-9688

Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO.N, NVO US)

What’s Changed Pharmaceuticals | Denmark

Updated Components Stock Rating Equal-weight

EPS Industry View In-Line

Price target US$40.00

Shr price, close (Jul 14, 2026) US$49.07

Risk Reward for Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO.N) has been updated 52-Week Range US$71.79-35.13

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

Reason for change EPS (DKr)** 26.17 21.91 22.03 22.81

Prior EPS (DKr)** - 21.39 20.87 21.73

We update our model ahead of Q2'26 results to reflect latest prescription trends

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

and changes in FX. We expect Novo Nordisk to raise the bottom of the FY26 framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

guidance (currently sales and EBIT to decline -4% to -12% CC) to reflect positive e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

launch dynamics for Wegovy pill in the US as well as ex-US growth for the GLP-1

business. We see the potential for the bottom of the guide to rise to negative single

digit (MSe -5% sales/-6% EBIT, VA consensus -5% sales / -7% EBIT). We are in line

with consensus on Q2'26; beat could come from one-off (GTN moves/stocking

movements) or a stronger performance for ex-US franchises in the quarter. We

forecast DKK 3,300m ($500m) for Wegovy Pill on the quarter based on IQVIA TRx

count, an assumption of 63% average capture rate through the quarter, and net

price of $170/TRx. We expect near term momentum to be driven by guidance raise,

ex-US Wegovy pill launch, results for ziltivekimab P3 study ZEUS in ASCVD+CKD,