Microsoft: 2Q26 CIO Survey Takeaways – GenAI Leadership Position Remains Clear

Research evidence excerpt

Microsoft: 2Q26 CIO Survey Takeaways – GenAI Leadership Position Remains Clear

Idea

July 16, 2026 02:24 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMMicrosoft | North America Josh Baer, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 CIO Survey Takeaways – Josh.Baer@morganstanley.comJonathan Eisenson +1 212 761-4223

Research Associate

Jonathan.Eisenson@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2808

GenAI Leadership Position

Microsoft (MSFT.O, MSFT US)

Software | United States of AmericaRemains Clear

Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View Attractive

Microsoft's GenAI leadership continues with robust demand Price target $650.00

Shr price, close (Jul 15, 2026) $395.63

trends across Azure and M365 + Copilot. Azure remains leading Mkt cap, curr (mm) $2,945,465

52-Week Range $555.45-349.20

platform for incremental share gains, E5 upgrades move higher,

Fiscal Year Ending 06/25 06/26e 06/27e 06/28e

with strong early adoption signals for E7. M365 Copilot EPS ($)** 13.64 17.35 19.62 23.86

penetration continues to improve, up to 88% from 80%. Prior EPS ($)** - 17.35 19.71 24.03

P/E 36.5 21.5 20.2 16.6

EPS ($)§ - 16.78 19.39 22.77

Div yld (%) 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1MMicrosoft's Strong Positioning for AI Opportunity Unchanged, Remaining a Clear Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

GenAI Winner. Our 2Q26 CIO survey points to a more constructive budget ** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

backdrop heading into 2026, with CIOs expecting IT budget growth to accelerate e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

modestly to +3.8% in 2026 from +3.7% in 2025, a +14 bps YoY improvement and Quarterly EPS ($)

modest uptick versus the +3.7% growth expectation in our 1Q26 survey, though still Quarter 2025 2026ePrior Current2026e 2027ePrior Current2027e