BNY: Quick Take on 2Q26 Earnings Result: Ten on the Trot

Research evidence excerpt

BNY: Quick Take on 2Q26 Earnings Result: Ten on the Trot

Update

July 16, 2026 12:33 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMBNY | North America Manan Gosalia

Equity Analyst

Quick Take on 2Q26 Earnings Manan.Gosalia@morganstanley.comConnell J Schmitz +1 212 761-4092

Research Associate

Connell.Schmitz@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6252

Result: Ten on the Trot

Bank of New York Mellon (BNY.N, BK UN)

What’s Changed Large Cap Banks | United States of America

Bank of New York Mellon (BNY.N) From To Stock Rating Equal-weight

Price Target $147.00 $151.00 Industry View Attractive

Price target $151.00

Shr price, close (Jul 15, 2026) $162.35

Mkt cap, curr (mm) $111,134

Reaction to earnings 52-Week Range $162.73-93.42

Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

10th straight qtr of strong optg. leverage, w/ improving organic

growth, and 40% PTM / 31% ROTCE well ahead of targets.

While we still see upside to consensus est., particularly in a

robust cap mkts environment, we are EW on valuation as BNY

trades at ~16x 2027 EPS, a 5x premium vs. 5 year avg.

Our Key Takeaways:

• Tenth straight quarter of strong positive operating leverage, with clear

organic growth momentum. BNY delivered nearly 600 bps of positive y/y

operating leverage (vs. Consensus 344 bps) on NII +20%, fees +13%, and

expenses +7% y/y. We now model ~480bps of operating leverage in FY26,

above the new guide of ~400bps, with clear organic growth a positive driver.

The Commercial Model helped drive 4.5% organic growth in 1H26, steadily

improving versus flat in 2022/2023, with record consecutive sales quarters

in 1Q/2Q. Average deal sizes have moved up >20% y/y, and ~10% of sales