ECB Preview: July is not April

Research evidence excerpt

ECB Preview: July is not April

Idea

July 16, 2026 04:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.+MECB Preview | Europe Jens Eisenschmidt

Chief Europe Economist

July is not April Jens.Eisenschmidt@morganstanley.comJean-Francois Ouvrard +49 69-21662817

Deputy Chief European Economist

Jean-Francois.Ouvrard@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662813

We expect the ECB to remain on hold at the July meeting. We Gabriela Silova

do not expect any significant changes to the overall messaging. EconomistGabriela.Silova@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662832

Data over the summer will be key for the decision in September. Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Chiara Zangarelli

Monetary Policy | Holding through July: We expect the ECB to remain on hold next Economist

week. The data received since the June meeting is keeping the ECB in between its Chiara.Zangarelli@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3644

mild and baseline scenarios, and recent remarks from the President and other Skander Garchi Casal

Economist

Governing Council members confirm our and consensus expectations for a hold. Skander.Garchi.Casal@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0034

More data is needed to decide on the next steps. The recent episode of oil price Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.+

volatility is a stark reminder of the fundamental lack of certainty around the path of Claire A Thuerwaechter

energy prices. This alone should steer the ECB away from leaning strongly in any Economist

Claire.Thuerwaechter@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662842

direction in either statement or press conference. We do not expect any changes to

the policy paragraph. But the Council will likely be more alert in light of recent oil Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Maria Chiara Russo

market developments.