Global Macro Commentary: July 16: Hawkish Fed Speak

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Commentary: July 16: Hawkish Fed Speak

Update

July 16, 2026 10:53 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Macro Commentary | North America Molly Nickolin

Strategist

July 16: Hawkish Fed Speak Molly.Nickolin@morganstanley.comLingdi Xu +1 212 761-3592

Economist

Lingdi.Xu@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2957

Middle East tensions rise; Philly Fed rises to multi-year high; Sofia Palacios

Fed's Schmid, Logan lean hawkish; Kospi drops 6.4% on StrategistSofia.Palacios@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428

leveraged-ETF curbs; chip selloff weighs on AI trade; DXY at Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

100.73 (+0.2%); US 10y at 4.55 (+0.6bp). Gek Teng Khoo

Hawkish Fed commentary and resilient US data pushed yields and the dollar Gek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303

higher, while a regulatory crackdown on leveraged trading in South Korea Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

deepened a global selloff in chip and AI-linked equities. Hiromu Uezato

Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431

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Developed Markets

• US Treasuries sold off modestly across the curve (2y: +0.6bp; 10y:

+0.6bp; 30y: +0.4bp) as data reinforced a resilient growth picture.