AltaGas Ltd Thoughts into 2Q26: LPG Strength & Midstream Platform Expansions in Focus

Research evidence excerpt

AltaGas Ltd Thoughts into 2Q26: LPG Strength & Midstream Platform Expansions in Focus

Jeremy Tonet, CFA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-4915 16 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

AltaGas Ltd (Neutral; Price Target: C$58.00)

Investment Thesis

ALA CN has continued to focus on meaningful deleveraging over the past several years. At

the utilities, ALA has delivered strong operational, regulatory, and cultural improvements

in recent years, with a keen focus on narrowing the gap versus allowed ROEs, improving

opex efficiency, and reducing leaks. For midstream, ALA possesses a strong runway for

Montney LPG wellhead to water export growth, capitalizing on growing Asian demand and

logistics advantages. However, we see MD regulatory risks and limited B/S capacity

bringing a more balanced risk/reward profile post recent stock performance.

Valuation

We establish a C$58 Dec 2027 price target (versus C$52 Dec 2026 price target). The utilities

business is valued using a P/E in line with the US LDC peer average. The Midstream

valuation factors in LPG export growth potential and an expectation for MVP investment

realization based on project capex. We mark to market multiples versus current trading

comparables and update our debt allocation methodology.

ALA Price Target Calculation

2028E Multiple Value $/share Discounted

P/E Valuation

US Utilities 622 18.2x 11,324 36 36

Corporate EV/EBITDA Valuation (16) 10.50x (168) (1) (1)

Midstream EV/EBITDA Valuation 1,073 10.50x 11,263 36 36

Non-utility Opco debt (5,028) (16) (16)

MVP 823 3 3

Total Company Value $ 58.00 58.00

Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

• The Asian LPG export arb outperforms or underperforms expectations.