Dunelm Group plc Q4 26 First Take - slightly better than expected top line should be well received

Research evidence excerpt

Dunelm Group plc Q4 26 First Take - slightly better than expected top line should be well received

C A Z E N O V E Europe Equity Research

16 July 2026

Dunelm Group plc Overweight

DNLM.L, DNLM LN

Q4 26 First Take - slightly better than expected top line Price (15 Jul 26):818p

should be well received Price Target (Jun-27):1,225p

Our Take: This is a slightly better than expected top line performance from European General Retail

ACDunelm (sale s+2.9% vs company cons +2.3%), and the company has reiterated Georgina Johanan, ACA

that FY 26 PBT should be in line with cons. Given the recent history of small misses (44-20) 7134-5791

and downgrades, and the now discounted valuation, we think this update should be georgina.s.johanan@jpmorgan.com

well received and expect the shares to move higher. Dunelm has highlighted that J.P. Morgan Securities plc

it will provide a further strategic update at its FY 26 results, and has referenced that Shailja Maskara

it plans to invest in the existing store estate - this could suggest some step up in the (91-22) 6157-3318

shailja.maskara@jpmchase.com

capex outlook into FY 27, although the strength of the balance sheet and solid cash J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

flow generation would support this in our view.

Specialist Sales contact details:

• Noteworthy Areas: Q4 26 update. Q4 26 (to end Jun) total sales are +2.9% Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

yoy, slightly ahead of JPMe/ company cons implied +2.5%/2.3%. Recall that European Consumer

in mid-Apr (at the Q3 update stage) Dunelm had referenced “a period of broad- (44-20) 3493-3709

based softening” in Mar and BDO data has implied a slower sales performance olivia.b.petronilho@jpmorgan.com

in Q4 than Q3 for the overall UK homewares market. This is therefore a solid

result in our view.