Super Retail Group Ltd FY26 Result Outlook – Sales improvement from Mar/Apr trough in focus

Research evidence excerpt

Super Retail Group Ltd FY26 Result Outlook – Sales improvement from Mar/Apr trough in focus

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 July 2026

Super Retail Group Ltd Overweight

SUL.AX, SUL AU

FY26 Result Outlook – Sales improvement from Mar/ Price (16 Jul 26):A$13.05

Apr trough in focus Price Target (Jun-27):A$15.00

Super Retail Group’s FY26 result will be released on Thursday, 20 August. The Australia

focus of the results will be: 1) the degree of sales improvement across fuel price

Australian Consumer Sector

impacted divisions (SCA and BCF) after the Mar-Apr top-line deceleration; 2)

margin outlook given a 3.25% wage increase, which is less than most retailers due Bryan Raymond AC

to a 2024 EBA; and 3) progress on the return to growth strategy (Project Ignite), (61-2) 9003-6750

bryan.raymond@jpmorgan.com

as a return on investment in the initiatives announced at the June investor day. With

Christina Kim

no changes to our earnings forecasts, we maintain our Overweight rating into the (61-2) 9003-7082

FY26 results with a $15.00 Jun-27 price target, at which point Super Retail would christina.kim@jpmorgan.com

be on a one-year forward PER of ~14x. J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

• SCA & BCF sales momentum expected to improve from fuel-cost driven

trough in Mar/Apr. SUL experienced an outsized LFL sales growth

slowdown across most brands (ex-Rebel) following the Middle East conflict-

driven fuel price spike across March and April. We expect the top-line impact

from fuel prices to be temporary, supported by the improvement seen in May

discretionary consumer spending outlined by bank transaction data and ABS

household spending data. Accordingly, we forecast May/Jun LFL sales growth

for Auto at+0.8% YoY (vs -0.3% in Mar/Apr), BCF at -5.6% YoY (vs. -9.2%