BHP 4Q26 result: Solid 4Q and ND below expectation, but downward revision to FY27 on copper guide; Retain OW

Research evidence excerpt

BHP 4Q26 result: Solid 4Q and ND below expectation, but downward revision to FY27 on copper guide; Retain OW

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 July 2026

BHP

4Q26 result: Solid 4Q and ND below expectation, but Overweight

downward revision to FY27 on copper guide; Retain BHP.AX, BHP AU

OW Price (16 Jul 26):A$59.14

▼Price Target (Jun-27):A$66.00

Prior (Jun-27):A$67.00

Key takeaways: 1) A solid 4Q from a volume perspective, with copper/iron ore

production broadly inline with JPMe, and coal above our forecasts; achieved iron Head of Australia Metals & Mining

ore prices were ~$1/t softer than JPMe, but copper was stronger for the half. Net Lyndon Fagan AC

debt of US$9bn came in below JPMe/BBG consensus of ~US$9.6bn. 2) The key (61-2) 9003-8648

focus was on new FY27 volume guidance (costs provided in Aug) where iron ore lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

was in line with market expectations, but copper fell short at Spence (throughput)

Australia Metals & Mining

and SA Copper (Carra conveyor failure). After updating our model, our FY26

earnings are up 2% but FY27 is down 5%. We look for an improved 2H DPS of Jonathon Sharp

US$0.99ps (70% underlying EPS payout / $1.72ps or 65% for the year). We (61 2) 9003-8312

jonathon.sharp@jpmorgan.com

continue to like BHP from an investment standpoint. The stock trades at P/NPV of J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

0.89x, FY27 EV/EBITDA of 7.5x, and offers exposure to well managed operations

Branko Skocic

and a growing copper profile longer term. (61-3) 9633-4069

branko.skocic@jpmorgan.com

• Quarterly performance strong, net debt lower than expected. Copper/ J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

Pilbara iron ore shipments of 493kt/75Mt were essentially in line with JPMe, Devwrat Vegad