Matador Resources Company 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Deja Vu All Over Again Like It's 2018; All Eyes on Woodford Test in the Northern Delaware

Research evidence excerpt

Matador Resources Company 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Deja Vu All Over Again Like It's 2018; All Eyes on Woodford Test in the Northern Delaware

Arun Jayaram AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-8541 16 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

Solid combination of FCF, growth, and cash return: MTDR

trades relatively in line with our coverage group on FCF yield

but is differentiated by providing peer-leading oil growth vs. the

majority of our coverage in maintenance programs or with only

modest growth. MTDR established the first dividend in

company history in early 2021 and has raised the dividend

multiple times.

Valuation

Our Dec 2026 price target is based on NYMEX strip pricing. Our

YTD 1m 3m 12m

Abs 24.0% 2.4% -7.8% 3.6% NAV methodology begins with a DCF of the company’s PDP

Rel 4.1% 2.1% -17.4% -31.4% reserves, adjusted for the company’s operating costs, our

commodity price assumptions, and balance sheet items. OurCompany Data

undeveloped valuation is based on a future development

Shares O/S (mn) 124

52-week range ($) 66.84-37.14 schedule. Our December 2026 price target is based on 75% of

Market cap ($ mn) 6,540.73 our NAV in order to account for our analysis of inventory quality

Exchange rate 1.00 and depth across our E&P coverage group.

Free float (%) 92.6%

3M ADV (mn) 1.74

3M ADV ($ mn) 95.9

Performance DriversVolatility (90 Day) 44

Index RUSSELL 2000

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 19|5|0

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

$ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E

Financial Estimates

Revenue 3,515 3,891 4,005

Adj. EBITDA 2,404 2,657 2,727

Adj. EBIT 1,208 1,417 1,449

Adj. net income 718 821 819

Adj. EPS 5.76 6.61 6.59

BBG EPS 5.65 7.46 8.57

Cashflow from operations 2,425 2,321 2,410

FCFF 551 893 910