HYBE 2Q preview: Expect BTS world tour-driven earnings beat; Maintain OW

Research evidence excerpt

HYBE 2Q preview: Expect BTS world tour-driven earnings beat; Maintain OW

th steady contribution from

other IPs. We expect the long-awaited BTS world tour to translate into Concert Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

and MD/Licensing revenue surge to W497B/W408B (163%/167% y/y each), Adj. EPS (W)

with modest support from favorable FX. In contrast, we expect softer 2025A 2026E 2027E

momentum in Content and Fanclub (Weverse) revenue, despite intense BTS Q1 1,449 (3,816)A 2,783

activity. We forecast 2Q OP of W175B, 14% above Street consensus, mainly Q2 435 3,284 2,765

Q3 (1,210) 3,249 1,563

driven by robust BTS concert and MD/licensing revenues, which should Q4 (6,387) 2,804 2,222

partially offset gross margin pressure from softer ancillary monetization (e.g., FY (5,713) 5,521 9,334

Content, Weverse) and BTS contract renewal.

Style Exposure

• BTS world tour finally arrived: What’s next? Following 2Q earnings, we

expect market focus to shift from BTS IP monetization upside towards: 1) the

durability of BTS-led earnings momentum and 2) the pace at which non-BTS

IPs scale up into meaningful earnings contributors. On BTS, we forecast a total

of 94 shows through 1H27E, and remain watchful for visibility beyond the

currently reported schedules (e.g., further tour extension). On non-BTS IP

execution, we believe HYBE remains a clear leader in the increasingly

competitive K-pop market, given strong album sales/Spotify listener gains of

key young IPs (e.g. CORTIS, LE SSERAFIM, ILLIT), which appears to be a

standout hit in the current industry landscape. We see KATSEYE’s next album

release on 14 Aug and CORTIS’s next release in late 2026E (JPMe) as key

positive potential catalysts.

• New Jun-27 PT of W340K. We lower our revenue/OP (ex-one off)/NP