Ericsson: Mounting headwinds

Research evidence excerpt

Ericsson: Mounting headwinds

Equity Research

European Technology Hardware

15 July 2026

Ericsson

Mounting headwinds

We cut EBITA ~5% across 2026-28 due to lower revenues

and/or lower margin assumptions. We think the next few

quarters look tough and a new incoming CEO adds a layer of ERICb.ST/ERICB SS UNDERWEIGHT Unchanged

uncertainty somewhat. We also struggle for AI upside cases in European Technology NEUTRAL

at least the nearer term. We cut our PT to SEK80 and reiterate Hardware Unchanged

UW. Price Target SEK 80.00

lowered -11% from SEK 90.00

Price (14-Jul-26) SEK 98.54

Margin question marks. Ericsson called out cost component headwinds again this quarter and Potential Upside/Downside -18.8%

expects these to increase in effect during the rest of the year and into 2027. Management Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

believes it has ways to mitigate but we were surprised to hear price increases were seen as one

viable lever. We think gross margin is likely under pressure for at least a year now, accelerated Market Cap (SEK mn) 332359

by new rollout pressure in 3Q before cost inflation further drives the headwinds. Shares Outstanding (mn) 3371.35

Free Float (%) 90.60Estimate changes. We cut 2026 revenues 1% but increase 2027E by 1%. The bigger change is on

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 7.3margins where we reflect our assumption around increasing cost headwinds. We cut 2027/28

Dividend Yield (%) 3.04gross margin 90bps and assume deterioration from the levels guided in 3Q into 4Q. This could

Return on Equity TTM (%) 25.84be conservative, but we give Ericsson credit for some mitigation given its recent track record of

Current BVPS (SEK) 31.47strong cost execution. As a result, adjusted EBITA falls ~5% in 2026-28E, which flows through

Source: Bloomberg

to EPS.

Valuation.