HCA Healthcare, Inc.: Fine-tuning EBITDA Bridge

Research evidence excerpt

HCA Healthcare, Inc.: Fine-tuning EBITDA Bridge

Equity Research

15 July 2026

HCA Healthcare, Inc.

Fine-tuning EBITDA Bridge

2026 guidance seems to imply a reacceleration in organic

growth from 1.5-2.0% in 1H to 4.0-4.5% in 2H, which looks

somewhat optimistic to us. HCA EQUAL WEIGHT Unchanged

U.S. Healthcare Facilities & NEUTRAL

Lowering Expectations Again: After pre-announcing a 2Q core miss and 2026 guidance cut, Managed Care Unchanged

HCA's stock finished the day down -6.9% (vs. S&P 500 +0.4%). With both ACA exchange

Price Target USD 402.00headwinds and core growth manifesting worse than expected, the outlook appears weaker than lowered -6% from USD 427.00

our recent downgrade and lowered estimates. Most importantly, 2026 guidance seems to imply

Price (14-Jul-26) USD 363.60a reacceleration in organic growth from 1.5-2.0% in 1H to 4.0-4.5% in 2H, which looks somewhat

Potential Upside/Downside +10.6%optimistic to us. Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Core Growth Below Our Lowered Expectations: After accounting for discrete revisions to the

ACA headwind (-) and Medicaid SDPs (+), revised guidance implies a -$450 mn cut to core Market Cap (USD mn) 80660

EBITDA, which outpaced our prior core revision of -$370 mn. Management primarily pointed to Shares Outstanding (mn) 221.84

worse surgical mix as a driver of pressure, which suggests a broader deterioration in commercial Free Float (%) 67.92

mix - potentially linked to growing pressure on the consumer wallet in 2Q. After incorporating 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 1.3

6-9% organic EBITDA growth in initial guidance, the company now sees closer to 4.5% at the Dividend Yield (%) 0.86

midpoint. Based on our EBITDA bridge which includes a few additional items, we see a Return on Equity TTM (%) N/A